Seminar: Sara Heller, University of Michigan

Speaker

Sara Heller from the University of Michigan

Title

"Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago, Parts I and II"
With Monica P. Bhatt, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman

Abstract

Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in American cities. We conducted a randomized controlled trial (N = 2,456) of a program to reduce shootings called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. READI offered adult men an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Our previous work showed that both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations in the 20 months after randomization. Overall, there was no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study’s primary outcome, during this period. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declined 65 percent (p = .13 after multiple testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generated estimated social savings between $182,000 and $916,000 per participant (p = .03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 18:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers—a pre-specified subgroup—showed enormous declines in both arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79 and 43 percent, respectively) that remain statistically significant even after multiple testing adjustments. Preliminary results from the post-program period (21-40 months after randomization) further explore these differences and introduce new health outcomes.