2001
Preliminary Price Projections
2002
Preliminary,
2001 Preliminary, 2000
Actual,
2000
Preliminary,
1999
Preliminary,
1998
Actual,
1998
Preliminary,
1997
Preliminary,
1996
Actual
Based
on discussions with publishers and on the latest information on
publisher price changes, world economic conditions, the current
and projected values of the U.S. dollar, and the latest electronic
journal trends, Faxon, Rowecom is projecting an approximate overall
increase of just over 10% for a sample journal collection. This
estimate is based largely upon our expectation that paper prices
will increase slightly, the U.S. dollar will remain strong against
all major currencies (including the Euro and the British pound sterling),
and that other key factors will remain much the same as for 2000.
Please note that these are preliminary projections based on current
conditions and information and are subject to change as the year
progresses.
Publisher
located in
|
North
America
|
Continental
Europe
|
U.K.
|
Other
|
General
Inflation
|
2.5%
|
2.5%
|
2.5%
|
3.0%
|
Publishing
Factors
|
|
|
|
|
Paper
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
Postage
|
0.5%
|
0
|
0.2%
|
0
|
Page/Volume
Increases
|
2.8%
|
3.4%
|
3.3%
|
3.0%
|
Cancellations
|
2.2%
|
3.50%
|
3.0%
|
2.0%
|
Currency
|
0
|
0
to -1%
|
0
to -1%
|
0
to -2%
|
TOTAL
|
10%
|
9.9
to 10.9%
|
10.0
to 11.0%
|
8.0
to 10.0%
|
Sample
Collection Increase:
|
%
of Budget $
|
x
|
Increase
|
=
|
Total
|
North
America
|
50%
|
x
|
10.0%
|
=
|
5.0%
|
Continental
Europe
|
30%
|
x
|
9.9
to 10.9%
|
=
|
2.97
to 3.27%
|
U.K.
|
15%
|
x
|
10.0
to 11.0%
|
=
|
1.5
to 1.65%
|
Other
|
5%
|
x
|
8.0
to 10.0%
|
=
|
0.40
to 0.50%
|
TOTAL
|
|
|
|
|
9.87
to 10.42%
|
To
determine the overall increase for your collection,
multiply the % of Budget $ of your
collection for each category above by the
Increase listed, and add the resulting
numbers as illustrated
above.
Key Assumptions
Paper
and postage: Although the increase in the
number of electronic journals has been dramatic
over the past year and will continue to rise in
2000 and 2001, most subscriptions are still either
paper only or electronic bundled with paper. Thus,
the costs for paper and postage continue to be a
factor. Paper prices have remained stable since
1994/95, when a substantial increase occurred.
Printing sources indicate the price change for 2001
may well fall short of the expected general
inflation rate. Postage: The U.S. Postal Service
has applied for a significant rate increase for
2001: an average of 15% on periodicals and 5% in
general library rates. The Magazine Publishers of
American have announced a $10 million campaign to
reform the U.S.P.S. and fight the rate hike.
Regardless of the outcome, either the rate hike
itself or the costs of the battle are likely to
impact serials prices. In the UK postage is
expected to rise by 2-5% as it did in '99.
Page/Volume Increases: As prepublication on
the web and article-by-article posting expand, so
too are the pages and volume of printed material
likely to increase. Until the journals switch
entirely to electronic publication, this pressure
to publish will result in higher costs for
additional content.
Cancellations: Subscription cancellations
will continue to affect publishers' pricing models.
We are projecting slightly higher impact for
cancellations of European (including British)
journals because of their generally higher prices.
We will monitor this factor closely throughout the
year, especially as publishers analyze their 2000
renewal rates. Movement from print to electronic
format may offset the cancellation rate slightly,
but publishers will also be factoring in changes in
revenue streams resulting from consortial sales and
from any trend towards document delivery or
pay-per-view in lieu of subscriptions. In addition,
to prevent the erosion of subscriptions, some
publishers are offering low price increases in
exchange for guaranteed 100% renewals over 1 or
more years, or for purchase of journal
packages.
Currency: We expect the US dollar to
continue its strong position. Current projections
in the financial markets suggest that the key
currency exchange rates will see relatively little
change over the next year. The effect of the Euro
has stabilized the European currencies with regard
to each other, and may thus even out the more
extreme swings in exchange rates among the major
currencies, including the U.S. dollar.
Electronic Journals: Pricing models for
print and electronic journals are likely to
continue following a few basic patterns: bundled
(electronic included with print, or more recently
print included with electronic), electronic-only at
a modest discount from the print price, and a
combination at a modest premium over either print
or electronic alone. What we're also beginning to
see this year is various pricing models for the
same material from one publisher. As an example, a
publisher might offer titles on a free with print
basis for a one-workstation license; for a site
license, the price is significantly higher. The
logic from the publisher's perspective is that
limited experimentation with providing electronic
resources should be freely encouraged whereas
serious initiation of electronic services for a
library's end users implies that the library is
ready to acknowledge that these resources have a
value.
We compared the percentage of free with print
titles in License Depot before we started adding
2000 pricing and after. In the Fall, free with
print titles made up 45.2% of the LD database,
whereas in the end of March 2000, free with print
titles make up 45.6% of this database. In that time
period, we've added about 400 new titles to the
database, but the percentage is still holding
relatively steady.
The final report on Elsevier's PEAK experiment is
due in 2000, which may suggest other ways of
purchasing content. Publishers are also exploring
variable pricing based on previous or expected
usage, or type and size of institution. The trend
id likely to become more significant in the coming
years.
Librarians contemplating a choice between
maintaining print and switching to electronic only
subscriptions have been concerned about the
archiving of these journals. As more publishers
issue guarantees of long-term access capabilities,
though perhaps at some additional cost, librarians
may feel more comfortable making this switch, for
enhanced access and a price incentive. The effects
are more likely to be seen in 2002, however, since
publishers do not expect the balance to tilt to
electronic-only in 2001. As publishers evaluate
usage patterns and subscriptions in the early part
of 2000, pricing trends may become clearer. Faxon,
Rowecom will continue to monitor publishers'
pricing models closely and update its price
projections accordingly.
General Inflation: While contributing to
overall price increases, inflation, particularly in
the U.S., Canada, and Western Europe is projected
to remain at a moderate and consistent level into
2001.
Other factors: The ongoing consolidation of
publishers via mergers and buyouts may affect
prices, but it is not clear what effect they will
have. In some cases, particularly in the short
term, any efficiencies expected from scaling are
initially offset by costs of conversion and
realignment. In other cases, these efficencies may
be realized quickly.
New publishing ventures, such as the SPARC
initiative, are not likely to have an immediate
effect on prices in general, although publishers
will be following their progress and success with
interest.
And finally, 2000 is a U.S. election year, which is
a quadrennial wild card.
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